The growth is real. The engine is fragile.

This is exceptional growth by any measure. We are one of the fastest-scaling developer tools in the market. The question isn't whether we're growing. The question is why, and whether the reasons are durable.

Fig. 1.1

Annual recurring revenue

From $333K to $19.9M in 27 months. The curve is vertical.

Fig. 1.2

Average revenue per user

Peaked at $33.94 in Feb 2025. Falling since. Volume is doing the work, not monetization.

ARR has gone vertical. But ARPU peaked at $33.94 in February 2025 and has fallen to $25.91. We're not growing because customers pay us more. We're growing because there are a lot more of them. Each one pays less than a year ago.

Signups.

Fig. 2.1

New signups per month

Something happened in October 2025 that stepped our top-of-funnel up 57% in a single month.

Monthly signups went from 74K to 355K in six months. Something happened in October 2025 that stepped our top-of-funnel up 57% in a single month. It has compounded since. Marketing deserves enormous credit here. This is the lever doing all the work.

Growth is powered by one lever: Marketing.

When we split "conversion" into two stages, the picture changes. Activation means a user sent 10 or more emails.

Fig. 3.1

Activation rate

Signup to sent 10+ emails. Flat for two years.

43% of users reach meaningful usage. This number has not moved in two years. 57% of every signup cohort never sends more than a handful of emails. We're acquiring users at an incredible rate and losing more than half of them before they experience the product.

Fig. 3.2

Monetization rate

Activated to paid. Recent months are still filling in (median 56 days to convert). The decline is real.

Of users who do activate, the share that eventually pays is declining. In late 2024, roughly 18% of activated users converted to paid. By mid-2025 (the last cohorts mature enough to trust) it's closer to 15%. Recent months show lower numbers but those are right-censored. Users are still converting. The trend line is what matters, and it points down.

There's a good-news, bad-news dynamic here.

Fig. 4.1

Monthly churn rates

Rates improving. Absolute numbers growing with the base.

The rates are improving. Monthly logo churn dropped from 12% in early 2024 to 8% today. Revenue churn went from 15% to 10%. Newer customers stick better than older ones. That's real progress.

But 8% monthly logo churn is still ~63% annualized. And in absolute terms, we cancelled 3,280 customers in April alone. That number grows every month because the base grows. We're pouring water into the bucket faster, but the holes are getting bigger too.

Fig. 4.2

Net Revenue Retention

Has crossed 100% exactly twice in 32 months. 100% is break-even.

NRR has averaged 95% for two years. It has crossed 100% exactly twice in 32 months. Revenue churn (~10%) minus expansion (~5%) = ~5% net loss each month. The existing customer base shrinks every month. We have no expansion engine. Growth comes entirely from adding new customers faster than old ones leave.

The math right now:

Massive signup growth × flat 43% activation × declining 15% monetization = still growing fast. For now.

This works as long as signups keep compounding. The moment signup growth normalizes, and it will, activation and retention become the binding constraint.

Remove the signup surge and the business contracts. NRR below 100% means the existing base decays. Activation and monetization aren't compounding. There's no flywheel where existing customers grow to outpace churn. It's a funnel, and the funnel is widening at the top while leaking faster in the middle.

We validated this against 25 months of production data. Median prediction error: 3.7%.

Five variables. Three are levers you can pull (signups, activation, monetization). Two are stable constants (NRR ≈ 0.95, new-customer ARPU ≈ $20). Drag the sliders below to see how each lever changes the Dec 2026 projection.

The leverage ranking is clear. At current scale, improving activation from 43% to 50% or monetization from 15% to 18% each add more ARR than growing signups another 10%. But right now only signups are moving. The other two are the work ahead.